Add TapADN smart preload attribution

Assets/Samples~/IAAAdDebugSample/Configs/IAAAdDebugSampleConfig.asset

@@ -33,7 +33,7 @@ MonoBehaviour:
   - key: tapadn.sub_channel
     value: debug
   - key: tapadn.rewarded_auto_load
-    value: true
+    value: false
   - key: tapadn.rewarded_prewarm_on_init
     value: false
   - key: tapadn.rewarded_max_load_attempts
@@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ MonoBehaviour:
   - key: tapadn.reward_amount
     value: 1
   - key: tapadn.interstitial_auto_load
-    value: true
+    value: false
   - key: tapadn.interstitial_prewarm_on_init
     value: false
   - key: tapadn.interstitial_max_load_attempts
@@ -57,7 +57,7 @@ MonoBehaviour:
   - key: tapadn.interstitial_show_timeout_ms
     value: 20000
   - key: tapadn.splash_auto_load
-    value: true
+    value: false
   - key: tapadn.splash_prewarm_on_init
     value: false
   - key: tapadn.splash_max_load_attempts
@@ -66,3 +66,10 @@ MonoBehaviour:
     value: 500
   - key: tapadn.splash_show_timeout_ms
     value: 20000
+  - key: tapadn.smart_preload_enabled
+    value: true
+  - key: tapadn.smart_preload_config_asset_path
+    value: TapadnSmartLoadPolicy_Default
+  - key: tapadn.smart_preload_config_json
+    value: >-
+      {"GlobalDefault":{"AdType":-1,"Scene":"__default__","BaseProbability":0.08,"PreloadThreshold":0.75,"CooldownSeconds":120,"MinSamplesForConfidence":8,"DecayHalfLifeHours":72},"ScenePolicies":[{"AdType":1,"Scene":"splash_debug","BaseProbability":0.25,"PreloadThreshold":0.7,"CooldownSeconds":120,"MinSamplesForConfidence":6,"DecayHalfLifeHours":48},{"AdType":0,"Scene":"reward_debug","BaseProbability":0.6,"PreloadThreshold":0.5,"CooldownSeconds":60,"MinSamplesForConfidence":4,"DecayHalfLifeHours":48},{"AdType":2,"Scene":"interstitial_debug","BaseProbability":0.45,"PreloadThreshold":0.65,"CooldownSeconds":90,"MinSamplesForConfidence":5,"DecayHalfLifeHours":48}]}

Assets/Samples~/IAAAdDebugSample/Runtime/TapadnIAAAdDebugSampleGui.cs

@@ -183,6 +183,8 @@ public sealed class TapadnIAAAdDebugSampleGui : MonoBehaviour
             GUILayout.Label(
                 $"Channel/SubChannel/Debug: {DisplayValue(options.Channel)}/{DisplayValue(options.SubChannel)}/{options.Debug}",
                 _textStyle);
+            GUILayout.Label($"Smart Preload: enabled={options.SmartPreloadEnabled}, asset={DisplayValue(options.SmartPreloadConfigAssetPath)}", _textStyle);
+            GUILayout.Label($"Smart Policy Snapshot: {TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.GetDebugStateDump()}", _textStyle);
         }
 
         if (showVerboseState && GUILayout.Button("Refresh Status Snapshot", _buttonStyle, GUILayout.Height(64f)))
@@ -191,6 +193,12 @@ public sealed class TapadnIAAAdDebugSampleGui : MonoBehaviour
             AppendLog("Manual status snapshot refreshed.");
         }
 
+        if (GUILayout.Button("Reset SmartLoad Learning State", _buttonStyle, GUILayout.Height(64f)))
+        {
+            TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.ResetLearningState();
+            AppendLog("TapADN SmartLoad learning state reset.");
+        }
+
         GUILayout.Space(10f);
     }
 

Assets/Tapadn_Adapter/Runtime/Resources.meta

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+fileFormatVersion: 2
+guid: 0f4f3adf5f7b4b2a8e4f3ff8f3a58c8e
+folderAsset: yes
+DefaultImporter:
+  externalObjects: {}
+  userData:
+  assetBundleName:
+  assetBundleVariant:

Assets/Tapadn_Adapter/Runtime/Resources/TapadnSmartLoadPolicy_Default.json

@@ -0,0 +1,40 @@
+{
+  "GlobalDefault": {
+    "AdType": -1,
+    "Scene": "__default__",
+    "BaseProbability": 0.08,
+    "PreloadThreshold": 0.75,
+    "CooldownSeconds": 120,
+    "MinSamplesForConfidence": 8,
+    "DecayHalfLifeHours": 72
+  },
+  "ScenePolicies": [
+    {
+      "AdType": 0,
+      "Scene": "reward_debug",
+      "BaseProbability": 0.6,
+      "PreloadThreshold": 0.55,
+      "CooldownSeconds": 90,
+      "MinSamplesForConfidence": 6,
+      "DecayHalfLifeHours": 48
+    },
+    {
+      "AdType": 2,
+      "Scene": "interstitial_debug",
+      "BaseProbability": 0.45,
+      "PreloadThreshold": 0.65,
+      "CooldownSeconds": 90,
+      "MinSamplesForConfidence": 5,
+      "DecayHalfLifeHours": 48
+    },
+    {
+      "AdType": 1,
+      "Scene": "splash_debug",
+      "BaseProbability": 0.25,
+      "PreloadThreshold": 0.7,
+      "CooldownSeconds": 120,
+      "MinSamplesForConfidence": 6,
+      "DecayHalfLifeHours": 48
+    }
+  ]
+}

Assets/Tapadn_Adapter/Runtime/Resources/TapadnSmartLoadPolicy_Default.json.meta

@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+fileFormatVersion: 2
+guid: b586678bfef849f2a293548b54f7790a
+TextScriptImporter:
+  externalObjects: {}
+  userData:
+  assetBundleName:
+  assetBundleVariant:

Assets/Tapadn_Adapter/Runtime/Scripts/TapadnAdController.cs

@@ -19,6 +19,7 @@ public sealed class TapadnAdController : IAdController
         _adConfig = adConfig;
         _options = TapadnControllerOptions.Resolve(adConfig, args);
         CurrentOptions = _options;
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.Initialize(_options);
 
         var sdkConfig = _options.BuildSdkConfig();
         DirichletSdk.Init(

Assets/Tapadn_Adapter/Runtime/Scripts/TapadnAwardVideoPlayer.cs

@@ -70,10 +70,12 @@ public sealed class TapadnAwardVideoPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletRewardVideoAuto
         }
 
         curState = 1;
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnLoadStarted(AD_Type.AwardVideo, AdScene);
         _adNative.LoadRewardVideoAd(
             TapadnAdRequestFactory.BuildRewarded(Key, TapadnAdController.CurrentOptions),
             ad =>
             {
+                TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnLoadResult(AD_Type.AwardVideo, AdScene, true);
                 _loadedAd?.Destroy();
                 _loadedAd = ad;
                 _loadedAd.Shown += OnManualShown;
@@ -86,6 +88,7 @@ public sealed class TapadnAwardVideoPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletRewardVideoAuto
             },
             error =>
             {
+                TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnLoadResult(AD_Type.AwardVideo, AdScene, false);
                 curState = 0;
                 Debug.LogError($"[TapADN] Rewarded load failed. code={error.Code}, message={error.Message}");
             });
@@ -127,12 +130,14 @@ public sealed class TapadnAwardVideoPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletRewardVideoAuto
         _rewardCloseSettleHandler?.Kill();
         _rewardCloseSettleHandler = null;
         curState = 0;
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnShowError(AD_Type.AwardVideo, AdScene);
         Debug.LogError($"[TapADN] Rewarded show failed. code={error?.Code}, message={error?.Message}");
         adListener.OnShowError();
     }
 
     public void OnAdShow()
     {
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnShowStart(AD_Type.AwardVideo, AdScene);
         NotifyShowStarted();
     }
 
@@ -168,6 +173,16 @@ public sealed class TapadnAwardVideoPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletRewardVideoAuto
     {
     }
 
+    public override void OnPlayRequestStarted()
+    {
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnPlayRequestStarted(AD_Type.AwardVideo, AdScene, !UseAutoLoad() && IsReadly());
+    }
+
+    public override void EnterAdScenario(string scenario)
+    {
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnEnterAdScenario(AD_Type.AwardVideo, scenario, Key);
+    }
+
     private bool UseAutoLoad()
     {
         return TapadnAdController.CurrentOptions?.RewardedAutoLoad ?? true;
@@ -175,7 +190,7 @@ public sealed class TapadnAwardVideoPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletRewardVideoAuto
 
     private void OnManualShown()
     {
-        NotifyShowStarted();
+        OnAdShow();
     }
 
     private void OnManualClicked()

Assets/Tapadn_Adapter/Runtime/Scripts/TapadnControllerOptions.cs

@@ -39,6 +39,10 @@ public sealed class TapadnControllerOptions
     public const string SplashMaxLoadAttemptsKey = "tapadn.splash_max_load_attempts";
     public const string SplashLoadRetryDelayMsKey = "tapadn.splash_load_retry_delay_ms";
     public const string SplashShowTimeoutMsKey = "tapadn.splash_show_timeout_ms";
+    public const string SmartPreloadEnabledKey = "tapadn.smart_preload_enabled";
+    public const string SmartPreloadConfigJsonKey = "tapadn.smart_preload_config_json";
+    public const string SmartPreloadConfigAssetPathKey = "tapadn.smart_preload_config_asset_path";
+    public const string SmartPreloadRemoteConfigJsonKey = "tapadn.smart_preload_remote_json";
     public const string ExpressWidthKey = "tapadn.express_width";
     public const string ExpressHeightKey = "tapadn.express_height";
 
@@ -55,23 +59,27 @@ public sealed class TapadnControllerOptions
     public string ATags { get; set; }
     public bool AllowIDFAAccess { get; set; } = true;
     public bool RequestPermissionOnInit { get; set; }
-    public bool RewardedAutoLoad { get; set; } = true;
+    public bool RewardedAutoLoad { get; set; } = false;
     public bool RewardedPrewarmOnInit { get; set; }
     public int RewardedMaxLoadAttempts { get; set; } = 1;
     public int RewardedLoadRetryDelayMs { get; set; } = 500;
     public int RewardedShowTimeoutMs { get; set; } = 20000;
     public string RewardName { get; set; } = "reward";
     public int RewardAmount { get; set; } = 1;
-    public bool InterstitialAutoLoad { get; set; } = true;
+    public bool InterstitialAutoLoad { get; set; } = false;
     public bool InterstitialPrewarmOnInit { get; set; }
     public int InterstitialMaxLoadAttempts { get; set; } = 1;
     public int InterstitialLoadRetryDelayMs { get; set; } = 500;
     public int InterstitialShowTimeoutMs { get; set; } = 20000;
-    public bool SplashAutoLoad { get; set; } = true;
+    public bool SplashAutoLoad { get; set; } = false;
     public bool SplashPrewarmOnInit { get; set; }
     public int SplashMaxLoadAttempts { get; set; } = 1;
     public int SplashLoadRetryDelayMs { get; set; } = 500;
     public int SplashShowTimeoutMs { get; set; } = 20000;
+    public bool SmartPreloadEnabled { get; set; } = false;
+    public string SmartPreloadConfigAssetPath { get; set; } = "TapadnSmartLoadPolicy_Default";
+    public string SmartPreloadConfigJson { get; set; }
+    public string SmartPreloadRemoteConfigJson { get; set; }
     public int? ExpressWidth { get; set; }
     public int? ExpressHeight { get; set; }
 
@@ -209,6 +217,10 @@ public sealed class TapadnControllerOptions
         SplashMaxLoadAttempts = incoming.SplashMaxLoadAttempts;
         SplashLoadRetryDelayMs = incoming.SplashLoadRetryDelayMs;
         SplashShowTimeoutMs = incoming.SplashShowTimeoutMs;
+        SmartPreloadEnabled = incoming.SmartPreloadEnabled;
+        SmartPreloadConfigAssetPath = incoming.SmartPreloadConfigAssetPath ?? SmartPreloadConfigAssetPath;
+        SmartPreloadConfigJson = incoming.SmartPreloadConfigJson;
+        SmartPreloadRemoteConfigJson = incoming.SmartPreloadRemoteConfigJson;
         ExpressWidth = incoming.ExpressWidth ?? ExpressWidth;
         ExpressHeight = incoming.ExpressHeight ?? ExpressHeight;
     }
@@ -266,6 +278,10 @@ public sealed class TapadnControllerOptions
         SplashMaxLoadAttempts = GetInt(map, SplashMaxLoadAttemptsKey) ?? SplashMaxLoadAttempts;
         SplashLoadRetryDelayMs = GetInt(map, SplashLoadRetryDelayMsKey) ?? SplashLoadRetryDelayMs;
         SplashShowTimeoutMs = GetInt(map, SplashShowTimeoutMsKey) ?? SplashShowTimeoutMs;
+        SmartPreloadEnabled = GetBool(map, SmartPreloadEnabledKey) ?? SmartPreloadEnabled;
+        SmartPreloadConfigAssetPath = GetString(map, SmartPreloadConfigAssetPathKey) ?? SmartPreloadConfigAssetPath;
+        SmartPreloadConfigJson = GetString(map, SmartPreloadConfigJsonKey) ?? SmartPreloadConfigJson;
+        SmartPreloadRemoteConfigJson = GetString(map, SmartPreloadRemoteConfigJsonKey) ?? SmartPreloadRemoteConfigJson;
         ExpressWidth = GetInt(map, ExpressWidthKey) ?? ExpressWidth;
         ExpressHeight = GetInt(map, ExpressHeightKey) ?? ExpressHeight;
     }

Assets/Tapadn_Adapter/Runtime/Scripts/TapadnInteractionPlayer.cs

@@ -56,10 +56,12 @@ public sealed class TapadnInteractionPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletInterstitialAu
         }
 
         curState = 1;
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnLoadStarted(AD_Type.Interaction, AdScene);
         _adNative.LoadInterstitialAd(
             TapadnAdRequestFactory.BuildInterstitial(Key, TapadnAdController.CurrentOptions),
             ad =>
             {
+                TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnLoadResult(AD_Type.Interaction, AdScene, true);
                 _loadedAd?.Destroy();
                 _loadedAd = ad;
                 _loadedAd.Shown += OnManualShown;
@@ -71,6 +73,7 @@ public sealed class TapadnInteractionPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletInterstitialAu
             },
             error =>
             {
+                TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnLoadResult(AD_Type.Interaction, AdScene, false);
                 curState = 0;
                 Debug.LogError($"[TapADN] Interstitial load failed. code={error.Code}, message={error.Message}");
             });
@@ -103,6 +106,7 @@ public sealed class TapadnInteractionPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletInterstitialAu
         }
 
         _showSettled = true;
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnShowError(AD_Type.Interaction, AdScene);
         curState = 0;
         Debug.LogError($"[TapADN] Interstitial show failed. code={error?.Code}, message={error?.Message}");
         adListener.OnShowError();
@@ -110,6 +114,7 @@ public sealed class TapadnInteractionPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletInterstitialAu
 
     public void OnAdShow()
     {
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnShowStart(AD_Type.Interaction, AdScene);
         NotifyShowStarted();
     }
 
@@ -129,6 +134,16 @@ public sealed class TapadnInteractionPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletInterstitialAu
     {
     }
 
+    public override void OnPlayRequestStarted()
+    {
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnPlayRequestStarted(AD_Type.Interaction, AdScene, !UseAutoLoad() && IsReadly());
+    }
+
+    public override void EnterAdScenario(string scenario)
+    {
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnEnterAdScenario(AD_Type.Interaction, scenario, Key);
+    }
+
     private bool UseAutoLoad()
     {
         return TapadnAdController.CurrentOptions?.InterstitialAutoLoad ?? true;
@@ -136,6 +151,7 @@ public sealed class TapadnInteractionPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletInterstitialAu
 
     private void OnManualShown()
     {
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnShowStart(AD_Type.Interaction, AdScene);
         NotifyShowStarted();
     }
 

Assets/Tapadn_Adapter/Runtime/Scripts/TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.cs

@@ -0,0 +1,981 @@
+using System;
+using System.Collections.Generic;
+using System.Text;
+using Runtime.ADAggregator;
+using UnityEngine;
+
+// 智能预加载实验：基于“场景出现次数/该场景实际播放请求次数”进行置信决策，
+// 并允许通过策略配置进行服务端默认值覆盖。
+public static class TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator
+{
+    private const string StatsPrefsKey = "TapadnSmartLoadStats.v1";
+    private const string DefaultScene = "__default__";
+    private const string PolicyDefaultScene = "__default__";
+
+    private static TapadnSmartLoadConfig _runtimeConfig;
+    private static Dictionary<string, TapadnSmartLoadSceneState> _states = new Dictionary<string, TapadnSmartLoadSceneState>(StringComparer.Ordinal);
+    private static Dictionary<string, TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItem> _policies = new Dictionary<string, TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItem>(StringComparer.Ordinal);
+    private static Dictionary<int, TapadnSmartLoadCacheState> _cacheStates = new Dictionary<int, TapadnSmartLoadCacheState>();
+    private static bool _initialized;
+    private static bool _enabled;
+
+    public static bool IsEnabled => _enabled;
+
+    public static string GetDebugStateDump()
+    {
+        if (!_initialized)
+        {
+            return "{}";
+        }
+
+        var lines = new List<string>();
+        foreach (var entry in _states.Values)
+        {
+            if (entry == null)
+            {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            var adType = SafeToAdType(entry.AdType);
+            if (!adType.HasValue)
+            {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            var policy = ResolvePolicy(adType.Value, entry.Scenario);
+            var prob = EstimateShowProbability(adType.Value, entry.Scenario);
+            lines.Add(
+                $"[{entry.AdType}]{entry.Scenario} e={entry.EnterCount} pReq={entry.PlayRequestCount} preReq={entry.PreloadRequestCount} preSuc={entry.PreloadSuccessCount} preFail={entry.PreloadFailureCount} showReq={entry.ShowRequestCount} showOk={entry.ShowStartCount} showFail={entry.ShowFailureCount} imm={entry.ImmediateHitCount} smartHit={entry.SmartCacheHitCount} smartUsed={entry.SmartPreloadConsumedCount} score={prob:F3} policy={policy?.PreloadThreshold:F2}");
+        }
+
+        return $"enabled={_enabled},states={lines.Count},policies={_policies.Count},cache={GetCacheDebugDump()},snapshot={string.Join(" ; ", lines)}";
+    }
+
+    public static string ExportSnapshotCsv()
+    {
+        if (!_initialized)
+        {
+            return GetSnapshotCsvHeader();
+        }
+
+        var sb = new StringBuilder();
+        sb.AppendLine(GetSnapshotCsvHeader());
+        foreach (var entry in _states.Values)
+        {
+            if (entry == null)
+            {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            sb.AppendLine(string.Join(",",
+                entry.AdType,
+                EncodeCsv(NormalizeScenario(entry.Scenario)),
+                entry.EnterCount,
+                entry.PlayRequestCount,
+                entry.PreloadRequestCount,
+                entry.PreloadSuccessCount,
+                entry.PreloadFailureCount,
+                entry.ShowRequestCount,
+                entry.ShowStartCount,
+                entry.ShowFailureCount,
+                entry.ImmediateHitCount,
+                entry.SmartCacheHitCount,
+                entry.SmartCacheCrossSceneHitCount,
+                entry.UnattributedCacheHitCount,
+                entry.SmartPreloadConsumedCount,
+                entry.SmartPreloadConsumedSameSceneCount,
+                entry.SmartPreloadConsumedOtherSceneCount,
+                entry.SmartPreloadShowFailureCount,
+                entry.SmartPreloadExpiredCount,
+                EncodeCsv(NormalizeScenario(entry.LastSmartPreloadConsumedByScene)),
+                entry.LastSmartPreloadConsumedUnix,
+                entry.LastPreloadUnix,
+                entry.LastUpdatedUnix,
+                EstimateShowProbability((AD_Type)entry.AdType, entry.Scenario)));
+        }
+
+        return sb.ToString();
+    }
+
+    public static void ResetLearningState()
+    {
+        if (!_initialized)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        _states.Clear();
+        _cacheStates.Clear();
+        PlayerPrefs.DeleteKey(StatsPrefsKey);
+        PlayerPrefs.Save();
+    }
+
+    public static void Initialize(TapadnControllerOptions options)
+    {
+        _runtimeConfig = BuildConfig(options);
+        _enabled = options?.SmartPreloadEnabled ?? false;
+        _initialized = true;
+        _states = new Dictionary<string, TapadnSmartLoadSceneState>(StringComparer.Ordinal);
+        _cacheStates = new Dictionary<int, TapadnSmartLoadCacheState>();
+        LoadStates();
+        EnsureDefaultPolicies(_runtimeConfig);
+    }
+
+    public static void OnEnterAdScenario(AD_Type adType, string scenario, string _slotId)
+    {
+        if (!_initialized || !_enabled)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        var normalizedScenario = NormalizeScenario(scenario);
+        var record = GetOrCreateState(adType, normalizedScenario);
+        record.EnterCount = Math.Max(0, record.EnterCount) + 1;
+        record.LastUpdatedUnix = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+        record.ShowRequestCount = Math.Max(0, record.ShowRequestCount);
+        SaveStates();
+
+        TryPreload(adType, normalizedScenario);
+    }
+
+    public static void OnPlayRequestStarted(AD_Type adType, string scenario, bool cacheReadyAtRequest)
+    {
+        if (!_initialized || !_enabled)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        var normalizedScenario = NormalizeScenario(scenario);
+        var record = GetOrCreateState(adType, normalizedScenario);
+        record.PlayRequestCount = Math.Max(0, record.PlayRequestCount) + 1;
+        record.ShowRequestCount = Math.Max(0, record.ShowRequestCount) + 1;
+        record.LastUpdatedUnix = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+        if (cacheReadyAtRequest)
+        {
+            MarkImmediateHit(adType, normalizedScenario);
+        }
+        else
+        {
+            MarkCacheExpiredIfStale(adType);
+        }
+
+        SaveStates();
+    }
+
+    public static void OnLoadRequested(AD_Type adType, string scenario)
+    {
+        if (!_initialized || !_enabled)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        PrepareSmartLoadRequest(adType, scenario);
+    }
+
+    public static void OnLoadStarted(AD_Type adType, string scenario)
+    {
+        if (!_initialized || !_enabled)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        BeginLoadRequest(adType, scenario);
+        SaveStates();
+    }
+
+    public static void OnLoadResult(AD_Type adType, string scenario, bool success)
+    {
+        if (!_initialized || !_enabled)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        CompleteLoadRequest(adType, scenario, success);
+        SaveStates();
+    }
+
+    public static void OnShowStart(AD_Type adType, string scenario)
+    {
+        if (!_initialized || !_enabled)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        var record = GetOrCreateState(adType, NormalizeScenario(scenario));
+        record.ShowStartCount = Math.Max(0, record.ShowStartCount) + 1;
+        record.LastUpdatedUnix = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+        MarkCacheConsumed(adType, scenario);
+        SaveStates();
+    }
+
+    public static void OnShowError(AD_Type adType, string scenario)
+    {
+        if (!_initialized || !_enabled)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        var record = GetOrCreateState(adType, NormalizeScenario(scenario));
+        record.ShowFailureCount = Math.Max(0, record.ShowFailureCount) + 1;
+        record.LastUpdatedUnix = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+        MarkCacheShowFailed(adType, scenario);
+        SaveStates();
+    }
+
+    private static void TryPreload(AD_Type adType, string scenario)
+    {
+        if (!_initialized || !_enabled)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        if (!ADManager.Instance.CheckNetwork())
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        var policy = ResolvePolicy(adType, scenario);
+        if (policy == null)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        if (!NeedPreload(adType, scenario, policy))
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        var now = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+        var state = GetOrCreateState(adType, scenario);
+        if (now - state.LastPreloadUnix < policy.CooldownSeconds)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        if (ADManager.Instance.IsRealy(adType))
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        MarkCacheExpiredIfStale(adType);
+        OnLoadRequested(adType, scenario);
+        ADManager.Instance.LoadAD(adType);
+        var smartLoadStarted = HasPendingSmartLoadForScene(adType, scenario);
+        ClearPreparedLoadIfNotStarted(adType);
+        if (!smartLoadStarted)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        state.LastPreloadUnix = now;
+        state.LastUpdatedUnix = now;
+        SaveStates();
+        Debug.Log($"[TapADN SmartLoad] Preload triggered: type={adType}, scenario={scenario}, score={EstimateShowProbability(adType, scenario):F3}");
+    }
+
+    private static bool NeedPreload(AD_Type adType, string scenario, TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItem policy)
+    {
+        var score = EstimateShowProbability(adType, scenario);
+        return score >= policy.PreloadThreshold;
+    }
+
+    private static float EstimateShowProbability(AD_Type adType, string scenario)
+    {
+        var policy = ResolvePolicy(adType, scenario);
+        if (policy == null)
+        {
+            return 0f;
+        }
+
+        var state = GetOrCreateState(adType, scenario);
+        if (state.EnterCount <= 0)
+        {
+            return policy.BaseProbability;
+        }
+
+        var observedRate = Mathf.Clamp01(state.PlayRequestCount / (float)state.EnterCount);
+        var confidence = Mathf.Clamp01(state.EnterCount / (float)Mathf.Max(1, policy.MinSamplesForConfidence));
+        var ageHours = Mathf.Max(0f, (GetNowUnixSeconds() - state.LastUpdatedUnix) / 3600f);
+        var decay = Mathf.Pow(0.5f, ageHours / Mathf.Max(1f, policy.DecayHalfLifeHours));
+        var trust = Mathf.Clamp01(confidence * decay);
+
+        return Mathf.Lerp(policy.BaseProbability, observedRate, trust);
+    }
+
+    private static void PrepareSmartLoadRequest(AD_Type adType, string scenario)
+    {
+        var state = GetOrCreateCacheState(adType);
+        if (state.PendingSmartLoad)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        state.PreparedSmartLoad = true;
+        state.PreparedOriginScene = NormalizeScenario(scenario);
+        state.PreparedOriginScore = EstimateShowProbability(adType, scenario);
+        state.PreparedRequestUnix = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+    }
+
+    private static void BeginLoadRequest(AD_Type adType, string scenario)
+    {
+        var state = GetOrCreateCacheState(adType);
+        var now = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+        if (state.PreparedSmartLoad)
+        {
+            var originScene = NormalizeScenario(state.PreparedOriginScene);
+            var record = GetOrCreateState(adType, originScene);
+            record.PreloadRequestCount = Math.Max(0, record.PreloadRequestCount) + 1;
+            record.LastUpdatedUnix = now;
+            state.PendingSmartLoad = true;
+            state.PendingOriginScene = originScene;
+            state.PendingOriginScore = state.PreparedOriginScore;
+            state.PendingRequestUnix = now;
+        }
+        else
+        {
+            state.PendingSmartLoad = false;
+            state.PendingOriginScene = NormalizeScenario(scenario);
+            state.PendingOriginScore = EstimateShowProbability(adType, scenario);
+            state.PendingRequestUnix = now;
+        }
+
+        state.HasReadyCache = false;
+        state.PreparedSmartLoad = false;
+        state.PreparedOriginScene = null;
+        state.PreparedOriginScore = 0f;
+        state.PreparedRequestUnix = 0;
+    }
+
+    private static void ClearPreparedLoadIfNotStarted(AD_Type adType)
+    {
+        var state = GetOrCreateCacheState(adType);
+        if (state.PendingSmartLoad)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        state.PreparedSmartLoad = false;
+        state.PreparedOriginScene = null;
+        state.PreparedOriginScore = 0f;
+        state.PreparedRequestUnix = 0;
+    }
+
+    private static bool HasPendingSmartLoadForScene(AD_Type adType, string scenario)
+    {
+        var state = GetOrCreateCacheState(adType);
+        return state.PendingSmartLoad &&
+               string.Equals(NormalizeScenario(state.PendingOriginScene), NormalizeScenario(scenario), StringComparison.Ordinal);
+    }
+
+    private static void CompleteLoadRequest(AD_Type adType, string scenario, bool success)
+    {
+        var cacheState = GetOrCreateCacheState(adType);
+        var normalizedScenario = NormalizeScenario(scenario);
+        var originScene = cacheState.PendingSmartLoad ? NormalizeScenario(cacheState.PendingOriginScene) : normalizedScenario;
+        var originRecord = GetOrCreateState(adType, originScene);
+
+        if (cacheState.PendingSmartLoad)
+        {
+            if (success)
+            {
+                originRecord.PreloadSuccessCount = Math.Max(0, originRecord.PreloadSuccessCount) + 1;
+            }
+            else
+            {
+                originRecord.PreloadFailureCount = Math.Max(0, originRecord.PreloadFailureCount) + 1;
+            }
+        }
+
+        originRecord.LastUpdatedUnix = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+        if (success)
+        {
+            cacheState.HasReadyCache = true;
+            cacheState.ReadyFromSmart = cacheState.PendingSmartLoad;
+            cacheState.ReadyOriginScene = originScene;
+            cacheState.ReadyOriginScore = cacheState.PendingSmartLoad ? cacheState.PendingOriginScore : EstimateShowProbability(adType, originScene);
+            cacheState.ReadyLoadedUnix = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+            cacheState.ReadyRequestUnix = cacheState.PendingRequestUnix;
+            cacheState.Consumed = false;
+        }
+        else if (cacheState.PendingSmartLoad)
+        {
+            ClearReadyCache(cacheState);
+        }
+
+        cacheState.PendingSmartLoad = false;
+        cacheState.PendingOriginScene = null;
+        cacheState.PendingOriginScore = 0f;
+        cacheState.PendingRequestUnix = 0;
+    }
+
+    private static void MarkImmediateHit(AD_Type adType, string scenario)
+    {
+        var consumedScene = NormalizeScenario(scenario);
+        var currentSceneRecord = GetOrCreateState(adType, consumedScene);
+        currentSceneRecord.ImmediateHitCount = Math.Max(0, currentSceneRecord.ImmediateHitCount) + 1;
+        currentSceneRecord.LastUpdatedUnix = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+
+        var cacheState = GetOrCreateCacheState(adType);
+        if (!cacheState.HasReadyCache)
+        {
+            currentSceneRecord.UnattributedCacheHitCount = Math.Max(0, currentSceneRecord.UnattributedCacheHitCount) + 1;
+        }
+    }
+
+    private static void MarkCacheConsumed(AD_Type adType, string scenario)
+    {
+        var cacheState = GetOrCreateCacheState(adType);
+        if (!cacheState.HasReadyCache || cacheState.Consumed)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        var consumedScene = NormalizeScenario(scenario);
+        var originScene = NormalizeScenario(cacheState.ReadyOriginScene);
+        var currentSceneRecord = GetOrCreateState(adType, consumedScene);
+        var originSceneRecord = GetOrCreateState(adType, originScene);
+
+        if (cacheState.ReadyFromSmart)
+        {
+            currentSceneRecord.SmartCacheHitCount = Math.Max(0, currentSceneRecord.SmartCacheHitCount) + 1;
+            originSceneRecord.SmartPreloadConsumedCount = Math.Max(0, originSceneRecord.SmartPreloadConsumedCount) + 1;
+            originSceneRecord.LastSmartPreloadConsumedByScene = consumedScene;
+            originSceneRecord.LastSmartPreloadConsumedUnix = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+
+            if (string.Equals(originScene, consumedScene, StringComparison.Ordinal))
+            {
+                originSceneRecord.SmartPreloadConsumedSameSceneCount = Math.Max(0, originSceneRecord.SmartPreloadConsumedSameSceneCount) + 1;
+            }
+            else
+            {
+                currentSceneRecord.SmartCacheCrossSceneHitCount = Math.Max(0, currentSceneRecord.SmartCacheCrossSceneHitCount) + 1;
+                originSceneRecord.SmartPreloadConsumedOtherSceneCount = Math.Max(0, originSceneRecord.SmartPreloadConsumedOtherSceneCount) + 1;
+            }
+        }
+        currentSceneRecord.LastUpdatedUnix = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+        originSceneRecord.LastUpdatedUnix = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+        cacheState.Consumed = true;
+        ClearReadyCache(cacheState);
+    }
+
+    private static void MarkCacheShowFailed(AD_Type adType, string scenario)
+    {
+        var cacheState = GetOrCreateCacheState(adType);
+        if (!cacheState.HasReadyCache)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        var originScene = NormalizeScenario(cacheState.ReadyOriginScene);
+        if (cacheState.ReadyFromSmart)
+        {
+            var originSceneRecord = GetOrCreateState(adType, originScene);
+            originSceneRecord.SmartPreloadShowFailureCount = Math.Max(0, originSceneRecord.SmartPreloadShowFailureCount) + 1;
+            originSceneRecord.LastSmartPreloadConsumedByScene = NormalizeScenario(scenario);
+            originSceneRecord.LastSmartPreloadConsumedUnix = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+            originSceneRecord.LastUpdatedUnix = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+        }
+
+        ClearReadyCache(cacheState);
+    }
+
+    private static void MarkCacheExpiredIfStale(AD_Type adType)
+    {
+        var cacheState = GetOrCreateCacheState(adType);
+        if (!cacheState.HasReadyCache)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        if (ADManager.Instance.IsRealy(adType))
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        if (cacheState.ReadyFromSmart)
+        {
+            var originSceneRecord = GetOrCreateState(adType, NormalizeScenario(cacheState.ReadyOriginScene));
+            originSceneRecord.SmartPreloadExpiredCount = Math.Max(0, originSceneRecord.SmartPreloadExpiredCount) + 1;
+            originSceneRecord.LastUpdatedUnix = GetNowUnixSeconds();
+        }
+
+        ClearReadyCache(cacheState);
+    }
+
+    private static TapadnSmartLoadCacheState GetOrCreateCacheState(AD_Type adType)
+    {
+        var key = (int)adType;
+        if (_cacheStates.TryGetValue(key, out var state) && state != null)
+        {
+            return state;
+        }
+
+        state = new TapadnSmartLoadCacheState();
+        _cacheStates[key] = state;
+        return state;
+    }
+
+    private static void ClearReadyCache(TapadnSmartLoadCacheState state)
+    {
+        if (state == null)
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        state.HasReadyCache = false;
+        state.ReadyFromSmart = false;
+        state.ReadyOriginScene = null;
+        state.ReadyOriginScore = 0f;
+        state.ReadyLoadedUnix = 0;
+        state.ReadyRequestUnix = 0;
+        state.Consumed = false;
+    }
+
+    private static string GetCacheDebugDump()
+    {
+        if (_cacheStates == null || _cacheStates.Count == 0)
+        {
+            return "empty";
+        }
+
+        var lines = new List<string>();
+        foreach (var entry in _cacheStates)
+        {
+            var state = entry.Value;
+            if (state == null)
+            {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            lines.Add($"[{entry.Key}]prepared={state.PreparedSmartLoad}:{NormalizeScenario(state.PreparedOriginScene)} pending={state.PendingSmartLoad}:{NormalizeScenario(state.PendingOriginScene)} ready={state.HasReadyCache}:{state.ReadyFromSmart}:{NormalizeScenario(state.ReadyOriginScene)} score={state.ReadyOriginScore:F3}");
+        }
+
+        return string.Join(" | ", lines);
+    }
+
+    private static string GetSnapshotCsvHeader()
+    {
+        return "ad_type,scenario,enter_count,play_request_count,preload_request,preload_success,preload_fail,show_request,show_start,show_fail,immediate_hit,smart_cache_hit,smart_cache_cross_scene_hit,unattributed_cache_hit,smart_preload_consumed,smart_preload_consumed_same_scene,smart_preload_consumed_other_scene,smart_preload_show_fail,smart_preload_expired,last_smart_preload_consumed_by_scene,last_smart_preload_consumed_unix,last_preload_unix,last_updated_unix,last_score";
+    }
+
+    private static TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItem ResolvePolicy(AD_Type adType, string scenario)
+    {
+        if (_runtimeConfig == null)
+        {
+            _runtimeConfig = BuildDefaultConfig();
+        }
+
+        var normalizedScenario = NormalizeScenario(scenario);
+        var exactKey = ComposeKey(adType, normalizedScenario);
+        if (_policies.TryGetValue(exactKey, out var exactPolicy))
+        {
+            return exactPolicy;
+        }
+
+        var defaultScenarioKey = ComposeKey(adType, PolicyDefaultScene);
+        if (_policies.TryGetValue(defaultScenarioKey, out var defaultPolicy))
+        {
+            return defaultPolicy;
+        }
+
+        return _runtimeConfig?.GlobalDefault != null ? _runtimeConfig.GlobalDefault : BuildDefaultConfig().GlobalDefault;
+    }
+
+    private static void EnsureDefaultPolicies(TapadnSmartLoadConfig config)
+    {
+        _policies.Clear();
+        if (config == null || config.ScenePolicies == null)
+        {
+            config = BuildDefaultConfig();
+        }
+
+        if (config.GlobalDefault == null)
+        {
+            config.GlobalDefault = BuildDefaultPolicy();
+        }
+
+        foreach (var policy in config.ScenePolicies)
+        {
+            if (policy == null || string.IsNullOrWhiteSpace(policy.Scene))
+            {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            if (policy.AdType < 0 || policy.AdType > 2)
+            {
+                continue;
+            }
+
+            var key = ComposeKey((AD_Type)policy.AdType, NormalizeScenario(policy.Scene));
+            _policies[key] = new TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItem
+            {
+                AdType = policy.AdType,
+                Scene = NormalizeScenario(policy.Scene),
+                BaseProbability = Mathf.Clamp01(policy.BaseProbability),
+                PreloadThreshold = Mathf.Clamp(policy.PreloadThreshold, 0f, 1f),
+                CooldownSeconds = Math.Max(0, policy.CooldownSeconds),
+                MinSamplesForConfidence = Math.Max(1, policy.MinSamplesForConfidence),
+                DecayHalfLifeHours = Math.Max(1f, policy.DecayHalfLifeHours),
+            };
+        }
+
+        foreach (AD_Type adType in Enum.GetValues(typeof(AD_Type)))
+        {
+            var key = ComposeKey(adType, PolicyDefaultScene);
+            if (!_policies.ContainsKey(key))
+            {
+                _policies[key] = ClonePolicy(config.GlobalDefault, adType);
+            }
+        }
+    }
+
+    private static TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItem ClonePolicy(TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItem source, AD_Type adType)
+    {
+        if (source == null)
+        {
+            source = BuildDefaultPolicy();
+        }
+
+        return new TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItem
+        {
+            AdType = (int)adType,
+            Scene = PolicyDefaultScene,
+            BaseProbability = source.BaseProbability,
+            PreloadThreshold = source.PreloadThreshold,
+            CooldownSeconds = source.CooldownSeconds,
+            MinSamplesForConfidence = source.MinSamplesForConfidence,
+            DecayHalfLifeHours = source.DecayHalfLifeHours
+        };
+    }
+
+    private static TapadnSmartLoadConfig BuildConfig(TapadnControllerOptions options)
+    {
+        var config = BuildDefaultConfig();
+        MergePolicyJson(config, ReadPolicyAssetJson(options));
+        MergePolicyJson(config, options?.SmartPreloadConfigJson);
+        MergePolicyJson(config, options?.SmartPreloadRemoteConfigJson);
+        return config;
+    }
+
+    private static string ReadPolicyAssetJson(TapadnControllerOptions options)
+    {
+        if (options == null || string.IsNullOrWhiteSpace(options.SmartPreloadConfigAssetPath))
+        {
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        try
+        {
+            var asset = Resources.Load<TextAsset>(options.SmartPreloadConfigAssetPath);
+            return asset != null ? asset.text : null;
+        }
+        catch (Exception exception)
+        {
+            Debug.LogWarning($"[TapADN SmartLoad] Load policy asset failed: {exception.Message}");
+            return null;
+        }
+    }
+
+    private static TapadnSmartLoadConfig BuildDefaultConfig()
+    {
+        return new TapadnSmartLoadConfig
+        {
+            GlobalDefault = BuildDefaultPolicy(),
+            ScenePolicies = new List<TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItemDto>(),
+        };
+    }
+
+    private static TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItem BuildDefaultPolicy()
+    {
+        return new TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItem
+        {
+            AdType = -1,
+            Scene = PolicyDefaultScene,
+            BaseProbability = 0.08f,
+            PreloadThreshold = 0.75f,
+            CooldownSeconds = 120,
+            MinSamplesForConfidence = 8,
+            DecayHalfLifeHours = 72f
+        };
+    }
+
+    private static void MergePolicyJson(TapadnSmartLoadConfig target, string json)
+    {
+        if (string.IsNullOrWhiteSpace(json))
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        try
+        {
+            var parsed = JsonUtility.FromJson<TapadnSmartLoadConfig>(json);
+            if (parsed == null)
+            {
+                return;
+            }
+
+            if (parsed.GlobalDefault != null)
+            {
+                target.GlobalDefault = NormalizePolicy(parsed.GlobalDefault);
+            }
+
+            if (parsed.ScenePolicies == null || parsed.ScenePolicies.Count == 0)
+            {
+                return;
+            }
+
+            if (target.ScenePolicies == null)
+            {
+                target.ScenePolicies = new List<TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItemDto>();
+            }
+
+            foreach (var policy in parsed.ScenePolicies)
+            {
+                if (policy == null)
+                {
+                    continue;
+                }
+
+                if (policy.AdType < 0 || policy.AdType > 2)
+                {
+                    continue;
+                }
+
+                if (string.IsNullOrWhiteSpace(policy.Scene))
+                {
+                    continue;
+                }
+
+                target.ScenePolicies.Add(policy);
+            }
+        }
+        catch (Exception exception)
+        {
+            Debug.LogWarning($"[TapADN SmartLoad] Merge policy JSON failed: {exception.Message}");
+        }
+    }
+
+    private static string EncodeCsv(string value)
+    {
+        if (string.IsNullOrEmpty(value))
+        {
+            return "0";
+        }
+
+        if (value.Contains(",") || value.Contains("\"") || value.Contains("\n"))
+        {
+            return $"\"{value.Replace("\"", "\"\"")}\"";
+        }
+
+        return value;
+    }
+
+    private static TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItem NormalizePolicy(TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItem policy)
+    {
+        return new TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItem
+        {
+            AdType = policy.AdType,
+            Scene = NormalizeScenario(policy.Scene),
+            BaseProbability = Mathf.Clamp01(policy.BaseProbability),
+            PreloadThreshold = Mathf.Clamp(policy.PreloadThreshold, 0f, 1f),
+            CooldownSeconds = Math.Max(0, policy.CooldownSeconds),
+            MinSamplesForConfidence = Math.Max(1, policy.MinSamplesForConfidence),
+            DecayHalfLifeHours = Math.Max(1f, policy.DecayHalfLifeHours),
+        };
+    }
+
+    private static TapadnSmartLoadSceneState GetOrCreateState(AD_Type adType, string scenario)
+    {
+        var key = ComposeKey(adType, NormalizeScenario(scenario));
+        if (_states.TryGetValue(key, out var state))
+        {
+            return state;
+        }
+
+        state = new TapadnSmartLoadSceneState
+        {
+            AdType = (int)adType,
+            Scenario = NormalizeScenario(scenario),
+            EnterCount = 0,
+            PlayRequestCount = 0,
+            LastUpdatedUnix = GetNowUnixSeconds()
+        };
+        _states[key] = state;
+        return state;
+    }
+
+    private static void LoadStates()
+    {
+        try
+        {
+            var raw = PlayerPrefs.GetString(StatsPrefsKey, string.Empty);
+            if (string.IsNullOrWhiteSpace(raw))
+            {
+                return;
+            }
+
+            var data = JsonUtility.FromJson<TapadnSmartLoadStateData>(raw);
+            if (data == null || data.Entries == null)
+            {
+                return;
+            }
+
+            foreach (var entry in data.Entries)
+            {
+                if (entry == null || entry.AdType < 0)
+                {
+                    continue;
+                }
+
+                var adType = SafeToAdType(entry.AdType);
+                var scenario = NormalizeScenario(entry.Scenario);
+                if (adType == null)
+                {
+                    continue;
+                }
+
+                var key = ComposeKey(adType.Value, scenario);
+                _states[key] = entry;
+            }
+        }
+        catch (Exception exception)
+        {
+            Debug.LogWarning($"[TapADN SmartLoad] Load state failed: {exception.Message}");
+        }
+    }
+
+    private static AD_Type? SafeToAdType(int value)
+    {
+        if (value < 0 || value > 2)
+        {
+            return null;
+        }
+
+        return (AD_Type)value;
+    }
+
+    private static void SaveStates()
+    {
+        var data = new TapadnSmartLoadStateData();
+        data.Entries = new List<TapadnSmartLoadSceneState>();
+
+        foreach (var entry in _states.Values)
+        {
+            data.Entries.Add(entry);
+        }
+
+        var raw = JsonUtility.ToJson(data);
+        if (string.IsNullOrWhiteSpace(raw))
+        {
+            return;
+        }
+
+        PlayerPrefs.SetString(StatsPrefsKey, raw);
+        PlayerPrefs.Save();
+    }
+
+    private static string ComposeKey(AD_Type adType, string scenario)
+    {
+        return ((int)adType) + "|" + NormalizeScenario(scenario);
+    }
+
+    private static string NormalizeScenario(string scenario)
+    {
+        if (string.IsNullOrWhiteSpace(scenario))
+        {
+            return DefaultScene;
+        }
+
+        return scenario.Trim();
+    }
+
+    private static long GetNowUnixSeconds()
+    {
+        return (long)(DateTime.UtcNow - new DateTime(1970, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, DateTimeKind.Utc)).TotalSeconds;
+    }
+
+    [Serializable]
+    private sealed class TapadnSmartLoadConfig
+    {
+        public TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItem GlobalDefault;
+        public List<TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItemDto> ScenePolicies;
+    }
+
+    [Serializable]
+    private sealed class TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItem
+    {
+        public int AdType;
+        public string Scene;
+        public float BaseProbability;
+        public float PreloadThreshold;
+        public int CooldownSeconds;
+        public int MinSamplesForConfidence;
+        public float DecayHalfLifeHours;
+    }
+
+    [Serializable]
+    private sealed class TapadnSmartLoadPolicyItemDto
+    {
+        public int AdType;
+        public string Scene;
+        public float BaseProbability = 0.08f;
+        public float PreloadThreshold = 0.75f;
+        public int CooldownSeconds = 120;
+        public int MinSamplesForConfidence = 8;
+        public float DecayHalfLifeHours = 72f;
+    }
+
+    [Serializable]
+    private sealed class TapadnSmartLoadStateData
+    {
+        public int Version = 1;
+        public List<TapadnSmartLoadSceneState> Entries;
+    }
+
+    private sealed class TapadnSmartLoadCacheState
+    {
+        public bool PreparedSmartLoad;
+        public string PreparedOriginScene;
+        public float PreparedOriginScore;
+        public long PreparedRequestUnix;
+        public bool PendingSmartLoad;
+        public string PendingOriginScene;
+        public float PendingOriginScore;
+        public long PendingRequestUnix;
+        public bool HasReadyCache;
+        public bool ReadyFromSmart;
+        public string ReadyOriginScene;
+        public float ReadyOriginScore;
+        public long ReadyLoadedUnix;
+        public long ReadyRequestUnix;
+        public bool Consumed;
+    }
+
+    [Serializable]
+    private sealed class TapadnSmartLoadSceneState
+    {
+        public int AdType;
+        public string Scenario;
+        public int EnterCount;
+        public int PlayRequestCount;
+        public int PreloadRequestCount;
+        public int PreloadSuccessCount;
+        public int PreloadFailureCount;
+        public int ShowRequestCount;
+        public int ShowStartCount;
+        public int ShowFailureCount;
+        public int ImmediateHitCount;
+        public int SmartCacheHitCount;
+        public int SmartCacheCrossSceneHitCount;
+        public int UnattributedCacheHitCount;
+        public int SmartPreloadConsumedCount;
+        public int SmartPreloadConsumedSameSceneCount;
+        public int SmartPreloadConsumedOtherSceneCount;
+        public int SmartPreloadShowFailureCount;
+        public int SmartPreloadExpiredCount;
+        public string LastSmartPreloadConsumedByScene;
+        public long LastSmartPreloadConsumedUnix;
+        public long LastUpdatedUnix;
+        public long LastPreloadUnix;
+    }
+}

Assets/Tapadn_Adapter/Runtime/Scripts/TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.cs.meta

@@ -0,0 +1,11 @@
+fileFormatVersion: 2
+guid: c383420c72bb4c1f90c0e88f0e250b5d
+MonoImporter:
+  externalObjects: {}
+  serializedVersion: 2
+  defaultReferences: []
+  executionOrder: 0
+  icon: {instanceID: 0}
+  userData:
+  assetBundleName:
+  assetBundleVariant:

Assets/Tapadn_Adapter/Runtime/Scripts/TapadnSplashPlayer.cs

@@ -56,10 +56,12 @@ public sealed class TapadnSplashPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletSplashAutoAdListene
         }
 
         curState = 1;
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnLoadStarted(AD_Type.Splash, AdScene);
         _adNative.LoadSplashAd(
             TapadnAdRequestFactory.BuildSplash(Key, TapadnAdController.CurrentOptions),
             ad =>
             {
+                TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnLoadResult(AD_Type.Splash, AdScene, true);
                 _loadedAd?.Destroy();
                 _loadedAd = ad;
                 _loadedAd.Shown += OnManualShown;
@@ -71,6 +73,7 @@ public sealed class TapadnSplashPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletSplashAutoAdListene
             },
             error =>
             {
+                TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnLoadResult(AD_Type.Splash, AdScene, false);
                 curState = 0;
                 Debug.LogError($"[TapADN] Splash load failed. code={error.Code}, message={error.Message}");
             });
@@ -103,6 +106,7 @@ public sealed class TapadnSplashPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletSplashAutoAdListene
         }
 
         _showSettled = true;
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnShowError(AD_Type.Splash, AdScene);
         curState = 0;
         Debug.LogError($"[TapADN] Splash show failed. code={error?.Code}, message={error?.Message}");
         adListener.OnShowError();
@@ -110,6 +114,7 @@ public sealed class TapadnSplashPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletSplashAutoAdListene
 
     public void OnAdShow()
     {
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnShowStart(AD_Type.Splash, AdScene);
         NotifyShowStarted();
     }
 
@@ -129,6 +134,16 @@ public sealed class TapadnSplashPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletSplashAutoAdListene
     {
     }
 
+    public override void OnPlayRequestStarted()
+    {
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnPlayRequestStarted(AD_Type.Splash, AdScene, !UseAutoLoad() && IsReadly());
+    }
+
+    public override void EnterAdScenario(string scenario)
+    {
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnEnterAdScenario(AD_Type.Splash, scenario, Key);
+    }
+
     private bool UseAutoLoad()
     {
         return TapadnAdController.CurrentOptions?.SplashAutoLoad ?? true;
@@ -136,6 +151,7 @@ public sealed class TapadnSplashPlayer : ADPlayer, IDirichletSplashAutoAdListene
 
     private void OnManualShown()
     {
+        TapadnSmartLoadOrchestrator.OnShowStart(AD_Type.Splash, AdScene);
         NotifyShowStarted();
     }
 

GLOBAL_DESIGN.md

@@ -35,12 +35,12 @@
 
 ## 广告播放器
 
-默认方案：使用 TapADN auto-ad 接口。
+默认方案：优先手动 load/show，避免把 `ADManager.AsyncAdPlayer` 的时序语义与 TapADN auto 语义混用。
 
 原因：
 
-* 官方 Unity 文档推荐 Android auto-ad，接口把加载和展示合并，SDK 自己管理缓存。
+* TapADN auto-ad 是官方 Android 场景下的“加载 + 展示合并”调用，不等价于完整场景分发与实时 readiness 能力。
-* `ADManager.AsyncAdPlayer` 已有遮罩、超时和回调收口；auto-ad 可以让业务侧首次播放少一个 preload 时序。
+* `ADManager.AsyncAdPlayer` 先做 `IsReadly` 决策，未 ready 则调用 `LoadAD`，ready 后再 `ShowAD`，所以手动模式下生命周期和失败收口更稳定。
 
 备选方案：手动 load/show。
 
@@ -105,3 +105,37 @@
 该路径以 `Packages/manifest.json` 所在目录为基准，符合 Unity 本地 UPM package 规则；`Packages/CC-Framework.Commercialization` 只是本机验证副本，已被 `.gitignore` 排除，不进入发布包。
 
 如果 batchmode 出现 `Failed to resolve packages: The "path" argument must be of type string. Received undefined`，不把它直接归因为 manifest 路径错误，也不使用 `-noUpm` 绕过。处理顺序是保存 Unity Editor log 和 `%LOCALAPPDATA%\Unity\Editor\upm.log`，确认没有并发 Unity/UPM 进程，再用官方 `Unity.exe -batchmode -quit -projectPath <project> -logFile <log>` 做一次只解析 package 的验证；若仍复现，则用 Unity Hub/已打开 Editor 作为 GUI 对照入口继续看 Console 编译错误。
+
+## 策略验收与可视化
+
+模块内置智能预加载策略评估脚本已接入，默认次留验收目标为 `35%`，用于验证 `PreloadThreshold`、`CooldownSeconds` 在不同留存下的策略敏感度。
+
+验收输出位于：
+
+* `Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/TapADN_智能预加载_敏感度验收报告.md`
+* `Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/smartload_sensitivity_summary.csv`
+* `Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/smartload_retention_rank.csv`
+* `Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/*.png`
+
+推荐复现命令：
+
+```bash
+python Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/smartload_sensitivity_simulation.py --users 5000 --out-dir Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output
+```
+
+核心对比维度（含 35%次留）：
+
+* `threshold` 的下调会提升 `Immediate`，但会抬高 `Waste`。
+* `cooldown` 拉长可压低 waste、降低重复预加载频次，但也会把 show 等待时延上抬。
+* 默认策略建议先用 `threshold=0.20~0.40` 做高即时性验证，再通过 waste 上限（如 8%~12%）回退到 `0.35~0.55` 区间。
+
+### 全局缓存归因
+
+`CC-Framework.Commercialization` 当前是一类广告一个全局 `ADPlayer`，场景只是播放与策略标签，不是缓存隔离单位。因此 TapADN 智能预加载按两层口径统计：
+
+* 策略触发层：哪个场景触发了真实 SDK load，记录 `preload_request/preload_success/preload_fail`。
+* 播放消费层：哪个场景实际发起 `AsyncPlayAD` 并展示，记录 `immediate_hit/show_start/smart_cache_hit`。
+
+如果 A 场景触发的全局缓存最终在 B 场景展示，A 会记录 `smart_preload_consumed_other_scene`，B 会记录 `smart_cache_cross_scene_hit`。这不会改变玩家实际体验，只用于避免把“全局缓存命中”误读成“同场景完全自消费”。
+
+验收产物建议每周回放：用最近 7 天留存分布与 fill 成功率替换脚本默认参数，再做一次敏感度重算并对比排名变化。

README.md

@@ -83,10 +83,56 @@ ADManager.Instance.Init(callback, userId, adConfig, new TapadnAdController());
 * `tapadn.splash_max_load_attempts`
 * `tapadn.splash_load_retry_delay_ms`
 * `tapadn.splash_show_timeout_ms`
+* `tapadn.smart_preload_enabled`（开启智能预加载策略）
+* `tapadn.smart_preload_config_json`（智能预加载静态配置 JSON）
+* `tapadn.smart_preload_config_asset_path`（预加载策略资源表路径，默认 `TapadnSmartLoadPolicy_Default`）
+* `tapadn.smart_preload_remote_json`（远端覆盖配置 JSON，按场景覆盖静态配置）
 * `tapadn.express_width`
 * `tapadn.express_height`
 
-默认激励、插屏、开屏都使用 TapADN Android auto-ad 接口。若遇到渠道缓存策略差异，可将对应 `*_auto_load` 设为 `false`，切换为手动 load/show。
+默认激励、插屏、开屏都使用手动 load/show；如无特殊策略验证需求，不建议开启 auto-ad。若要做 auto-ad AB 测试，再将对应 `*_auto_load` 设为 `true`。
+
+### 智能预加载（实验）
+
+默认会按“场景进入次数 + 场景播放请求次数”维护一个小样本统计：
+
+* 进入场景时记录 `EnterCount`
+* `AsyncPlayAD` 执行前调用的 `OnPlayRequestStarted` 记录 `PlayRequestCount`
+* 按置信加权算法推算场景播放概率，达到阈值后触发 `ADManager.LoadAD` 预加载
+* 预加载归因按“全局广告类型缓存”记录：触发场景记录 `preload_request/success/fail`，实际播放场景记录 `show/immediate/smart_cache_hit`
+* 当 A 场景触发的全局缓存在 B 场景展示时，A 会记录 `smart_preload_consumed_other_scene`，B 会记录 `smart_cache_cross_scene_hit`
+
+配置 JSON 示例（可通过 `CommonKeyValues` 下发）：
+
+```json
+{
+  "GlobalDefault": {
+    "AdType": -1,
+    "Scene": "__default__",
+    "BaseProbability": 0.08,
+    "PreloadThreshold": 0.75,
+    "CooldownSeconds": 120,
+    "MinSamplesForConfidence": 8,
+    "DecayHalfLifeHours": 72
+  },
+  "ScenePolicies": [
+    {
+      "AdType": 0,
+      "Scene": "reward_debug",
+      "BaseProbability": 0.6,
+      "PreloadThreshold": 0.5,
+      "CooldownSeconds": 60,
+      "MinSamplesForConfidence": 4,
+      "DecayHalfLifeHours": 48
+    }
+  ]
+}
+```
+
+说明：
+* `AdType` 使用 `AD_Type` 枚举值：`0=AwardVideo`, `1=Splash`, `2=Interaction`
+* `Scene` 用于和 `ADManager.EnterAdScenario` 的场景名对齐；场景未命中时回退到对应广告位的默认场景配置。
+* `ExportSnapshotCsv()` 会额外导出 `immediate_hit`、`smart_cache_hit`、`smart_preload_consumed`、`smart_preload_expired` 等列，用于区分“哪个场景触发预加载”和“哪个场景最终消费缓存”。
 
 ## Android 构建
 
@@ -100,3 +146,34 @@ ADManager.Instance.Init(callback, userId, adConfig, new TapadnAdController());
 * `android.useAndroidX=true` 与 `android.enableJetifier=true`。
 
 包内不默认暴露可视化编辑面板；调试样例通过 `Samples~` 作为可选导入内容。
+
+## 智能预加载敏感度验收（默认次留 35%）
+
+本模块包含一套本地仿真脚本，用于模拟 IAA 场景下不同 `PreloadThreshold` 与 `CooldownSeconds` 的收益差异，输出完整 CSV 与变化曲线。
+
+默认次留基线设置为 `35%`（你可以改保留率列表），默认模型参数位于 `Assets/Tapadn_Adapter/Runtime/Resources/TapadnSmartLoadPolicy_Default.json`。
+
+```bash
+python Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/smartload_sensitivity_simulation.py --users 5000 --out-dir Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output
+```
+
+输出文件（可复现）：
+
+* `Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/smartload_sensitivity_summary.csv`
+* `Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/smartload_retention_rank.csv`
+* `Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/TapADN_智能预加载_敏感度验收报告.md`
+* `Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/*.png`（热力图和曲线）
+
+重点图示（`TapADN_智能预加载_敏感度验收报告.md` 中已自动嵌入）：
+
+* `heatmap_immediate_r_0.35.png`（次留 35% 下的即时命中率）
+* `heatmap_wait_ms_r_0.35.png`（次留 35% 下的平均等待时延）
+* `heatmap_waste_ratio_r_0.35.png`（次留 35% 下的 waste 率）
+* `line_immediate_vs_retention.png`（留存与即时命中率关系）
+* `line_wait_vs_retention.png`（留存与等待时延关系）
+
+你也可以直接查看部分曲线对比：
+
+![Immediate vs retention](Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/line_immediate_vs_retention.png)
+![Wait vs retention](Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/line_wait_vs_retention.png)
+![Heatmap immediate 35%](Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/heatmap_immediate_r_0.35.png)

TapADN自动加载策略分析报告.md

@@ -6,7 +6,10 @@
 
 但不能把 TapADN 的 auto 与 TopOn 的全自动加载视为同一种能力。TopOn 的 auto 是一套更完整的广告位请求维护方案，包含广告位注册、真实 ready 查询、场景进入统计、缓存状态统计和自动续载；TapADN 当前 Unity wrapper 暴露的是“加载 + 展示合并”的 auto show API，没有看到类似 `entryAutoAdScenarioWithPlacementID` 的场景入口，也没有看到 auto ready 查询 API。
 
-因此，生产默认策略建议调整为“激励视频可优先 auto，但插屏和开屏建议默认手动或由项目配置显式开启 auto”。如果为了兼容当前模块和快速调试继续保留 auto 默认值，也应该在正式项目配置里显式写清楚每个广告类型的选择，避免项目层误以为 `IsReadly()` 表示真实填充可展示。
+因此，生产默认策略建议改为“默认全部手动”，并保留每类广告的开关用于分场景 AB。原因是：
+
+* 当前 `AsyncAdPlayer` 已经承载了 ready/load/show 的生命周期统一，手动模式更能把回调和失败收口稳定在框架层。
+* 上层仍会调用 `ADManager.EnterAdScenario(...)`，这更适合我们把策略判断放到“场景上”，而不是让 SDK 的 auto 接口替代场景决策。
 
 ## 问题定义
 
@@ -20,9 +23,9 @@
 
 当前模块默认配置位于 `Assets/Tapadn_Adapter/Runtime/Scripts/TapadnControllerOptions.cs`：
 
-* `RewardedAutoLoad = true`
+ * `RewardedAutoLoad = false`
-* `InterstitialAutoLoad = true`
+ * `InterstitialAutoLoad = false`
-* `SplashAutoLoad = true`
+ * `SplashAutoLoad = false`
 * `RewardedPrewarmOnInit`、`InterstitialPrewarmOnInit`、`SplashPrewarmOnInit` 默认为 `false`
 
 三个播放器的 auto 分支行为如下：
@@ -77,8 +80,8 @@ TapADN / Dirichlet Unity 文档对 auto 的描述主要是“加载和展示合
 建议在生产项目里按如下方式显式配置：
 
 ```text
-tapadn.rewarded_auto_load=true
+tapadn.rewarded_auto_load=false
-tapadn.rewarded_prewarm_on_init=true 或在进入高概率广告场景前主动 LoadAD
+tapadn.rewarded_prewarm_on_init=false （建议改用入口驱动的手动 preload）
 
 tapadn.interstitial_auto_load=false
 tapadn.interstitial_prewarm_on_init=false
@@ -87,7 +90,7 @@ tapadn.splash_auto_load=false
 tapadn.splash_prewarm_on_init=false
 ```
 
-如果项目追求快速接入、广告位较少、可以接受展示时等待，则可以短期保持当前三类 auto 默认开启。但正式灰度前至少应完成以下验证：
+如果你想走“上层智能策略”也可以让默认逻辑保持上面的配置，再在高概率收益场景按策略临时开 auto 进行实验。必须完成以下验证：
 
 * auto 模式下点击激励按钮到 `OnAdShow` 的延迟分布。
 * auto 模式下 show fail、load fail、close、reward verify 是否都被 `ADManager` 收口。
@@ -95,6 +98,42 @@ tapadn.splash_prewarm_on_init=false
 * 开屏失败或无填充时是否能按产品要求进入主场景。
 * 每个业务广告场景是否有自己的埋点、频控和远程配置。
 
+## 内部智能策略建议（结合场景声明）
+
+上层仍然在 `ADManager.EnterAdScenario(adType, scenario)` 里会声明场景，这个入口可以成为 TapADN 的控制平面。建议用一个本地策略层（或接入现有 remote config）来替代“固定 auto 默认”。核心规则建议:
+
+* 入场闸门：新手 / 首次会话内降低开屏和插屏频率，设置较长冷却。
+* 价值分层：`resume_continue`、`revive`、`double_reward`、`level_complete`、`session_end` 使用不同触发阈值。
+* 预算分发：按场景给定每小时/每日展示配额，按最近 N 次 fill 成功率和关闭率动态降权。
+* 失败避障：对连续 fail 场景计入惩罚分，自动降级到手动模式或延后下一次尝试。
+* 回落路径：场景声明后可先触发预加载（手动），再在 `AsyncPlayAD` 时做 ready 判断，避免 show 时阻塞。
+
+### 实战落地推荐（先做这 4 件）
+
+为了先上线再迭代，这版实验建议按下面节奏推进（先保守后扩展）：
+
+1. 先做“是否预加载”二分类决策
+   - 输入：场景进入次数 / 播放请求次数 / 最近一次更新距今时长
+   - 输出：`preload_score` 与 `cooldown`
+   - 初始阈值：`score >= threshold && cooldown 过期`
+
+2. 再加“场景独立配置表”
+   - 默认配置放在 `TapadnSmartLoadPolicy_Default.json`（本地资源表）
+   - 支持服务端覆盖配置（`tapadn.smart_preload_remote_json`）
+   - 场景命中优先、无命中回退到该位 default
+
+3. 建立在线反馈回路（每 1~3 天可更新）
+   - `enter_count` / `play_request_count` + `fill 成功率`
+   - `show_success - close 率` 作为质量约束（用于上调/下调阈值）
+
+4. 降噪与退化
+   - 连续低效场景自动降 `threshold`、拉长 `cooldown`
+   - 连续高效场景适当提高预加载优先级
+
+这样比“固定 always auto”更安全：能先守住体验（手动 show 生命周期），再逐步把预加载放到高价值场景。
+
+这样我们保持框架语义：`AsyncAdPlayer` 负责生命周期和回调收口，场景策略只负责“该不该、何时、给谁”。
+
 ## 当前实现评价
 
 当前 TapADN auto 接入本身是合规且完整的 API 级接入，但默认策略偏激进。它适合样例工程、快速调试和 Android 单平台验证；对于正式 IAA 游戏商业化，建议把默认认知改成：
@@ -119,3 +158,26 @@ tapadn.splash_prewarm_on_init=false
 * [Google AdMob recommended interstitial implementations](https://support.google.com/admob/answer/6201350?hl=en)
 * [Google AdMob frequency capping](https://support.google.com/admob/answer/6244508?hl=en)
 * [Unity LevelPlay placement best practices](https://docs.unity.com/grow/levelplay/platform/best-practices/placement)
+
+## 仿真验收输出（新增）
+
+为便于快速比较 `threshold / cooldown` 对用户体验与 waste 的影响，本模块附带一套敏感度脚本产物，默认次留目标为 35%：
+
+- 报告：`Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/TapADN_智能预加载_敏感度验收报告.md`
+- 明细 CSV：`Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/smartload_sensitivity_summary.csv`
+- 排名 CSV：`Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/smartload_retention_rank.csv`
+- 图表：`Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/*.png`
+
+常用可视化入口（打开仓库根目录）：
+
+- [热力图（35%次留）](Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/heatmap_immediate_r_0.35.png)
+- [平均时延（35%次留）](Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/heatmap_wait_ms_r_0.35.png)
+- [Waste 热力图（35%次留）](Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/heatmap_waste_ratio_r_0.35.png)
+- [留存变化线（即时性）](Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/line_immediate_vs_retention.png)
+- [留存变化线（时延）](Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/line_wait_vs_retention.png)
+
+脚本运行命令：
+
+```bash
+python Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/smartload_sensitivity_simulation.py --users 5000 --out-dir Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output
+```

Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/TapADN_智能预加载_敏感度验收报告.md

@@ -0,0 +1,160 @@
+# TapADN 智能预加载策略验收报告（含随机偏好机器人 + 网络环境）
+
+## 仿真前提
+- 模型定位：IAA 场景中 3 类广告位（激励/开屏/插屏）统一参与策略决策。
+- 次留默认验收基线：35%
+- 随机机器人数量：5000
+- 场景进入->展示请求->预加载决策->展示时延为核心链路。
+- 每次样本运行前先生成一批“偏好机器人”，再在其上分别运行：纯手动（无 smart）与智能预加载两种模式。
+- 预加载触发后在 cooldown 内有效一次，不命中将视作普通 load。
+- `Immediate`：请求时已命中可直接播放的占比（值越高越好）
+- `Waste`：预加载后在 cooldown 内未被消费即失效的比例（值越低越好）
+- 网络环境：Wi-Fi / 4G / 3G / 2G 按机器人偏好加权采样，逐回合独立变化。
+
+## 机器人与网络设置
+- 机器人类型：随机采样以下偏好族（reward_heavy、interstitial_focus、splash_driven、balanced、churn_sensitive、network_bound）。
+- 每类机器人具有独立的场景进入偏好、请求偏好、fill 成功倍率、加载时延倍率和留存倍率。
+- 网络环境以会话粒度采样，低网速会同步影响网络请求率、fill 成功率和加载耗时。
+
+## 参数扫描范围
+- Threshold: `0.20~0.90` 步长 0.05
+- Cooldown: `30,60,90,120,180,240,300`
+- 次留：`20%,25%,30%,35%,40%,50%,60%`
+
+## 基线对照
+- 次留 35% 基线（纯手动，无 smart）即时命中率：0.00%
+- 次留 35% 基线平均时延：1615 ms（p95 2913）
+- 次留 35% 建议起点（当前模型）：`threshold=0.25, cooldown=30s`
+  - 对比基线即时命中提升：`38.09%`
+  - 对比基线时延变化：`-565 ms`
+- 平衡候选（Waste<=12%）：
+  - threshold=0.25, cd=60s，Immediate 25.12%，Waste 4.88%
+
+## 最优/最差（次留=35%）
+| 排名 | Threshold | Cooldown | 即时命中率 | 平均等待 | P95等待 | 浪费率 | 播放成功率 |
+|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| 1 | 0.25 | 30 | 38.09% | 1050 | 2787 | 14.03% | 81.35% |
+| 2 | 0.20 | 30 | 36.65% | 1073 | 2790 | 13.96% | 81.35% |
+| 3 | 0.25 | 60 | 25.12% | 1234 | 2774 | 4.88% | 77.96% |
+| 4 | 0.20 | 60 | 24.81% | 1242 | 2830 | 6.75% | 77.45% |
+| 5 | 0.30 | 30 | 24.65% | 1285 | 2894 | 7.73% | 77.79% |
+| 6 | 0.30 | 60 | 24.56% | 1239 | 2812 | 5.76% | 77.61% |
+| 7 | 0.35 | 30 | 23.05% | 1318 | 2895 | 5.44% | 77.58% |
+| 8 | 0.50 | 30 | 22.96% | 1320 | 2893 | 4.99% | 77.54% |
+
+### 最差 8 组
+| 排名 | Threshold | Cooldown | 即时命中率 | 平均等待 | P95等待 | 浪费率 | 播放成功率 |
+|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
+| 1 | 0.90 | 300 | 0.00% | 1629 | 2924 | 0.00% | 70.55% |
+| 2 | 0.90 | 240 | 0.00% | 1630 | 2899 | 0.00% | 70.09% |
+| 3 | 0.90 | 180 | 0.00% | 1622 | 2907 | 0.00% | 70.60% |
+| 4 | 0.90 | 120 | 0.00% | 1633 | 2943 | 0.00% | 70.51% |
+| 5 | 0.90 | 90 | 0.00% | 1637 | 2963 | 0.00% | 70.84% |
+| 6 | 0.90 | 60 | 0.00% | 1628 | 2863 | 0.00% | 70.72% |
+| 7 | 0.90 | 30 | 0.00% | 1627 | 2933 | 0.00% | 69.52% |
+| 8 | 0.85 | 300 | 0.00% | 1623 | 2910 | 0.00% | 70.69% |
+
+## 与纯手动模式对比（次留35%）
+- 纯手动：Immediate `0.00%`，AvgWait `1615`ms，Waste `0.00%`。
+- smart 最优：阈值 `0.25`，cd `30`，Immediate `38.09%`，AvgWait `1050`ms，Waste `14.03%`。
+- 增益：`38.09%`。
+
+### 网络分层对比（次留35%）
+- WIFI：手动即时 `0.00%` / 等待 `1248ms`；智能（`threshold=0.25, cd=30s`）即时 `40.13%` / 等待 `767ms`；提升 `40.13%`。
+- 4G：手动即时 `0.00%` / 等待 `1601ms`；智能（`threshold=0.25, cd=30s`）即时 `39.66%` / 等待 `1003ms`；提升 `39.66%`。
+- 3G：手动即时 `0.00%` / 等待 `2165ms`；智能（`threshold=0.20, cd=30s`）即时 `32.64%` / 等待 `1498ms`；提升 `32.64%`。
+- 2G：手动即时 `0.00%` / 等待 `3044ms`；智能（`threshold=0.25, cd=30s`）即时 `32.06%` / 等待 `2116ms`；提升 `32.06%`。
+## 次留敏感度（35%基线）
+- 次留 20%：手动基线时延 1618ms，智能最佳 `threshold=0.20, cd=30s`，最佳 Immediate 38.69%，Waste 13.14%；最差 `threshold=0.90, cd=300s`，Immediate 0.00%，Waste 0.00%。
+- 次留 25%：手动基线时延 1641ms，智能最佳 `threshold=0.20, cd=30s`，最佳 Immediate 37.52%，Waste 14.16%；最差 `threshold=0.90, cd=300s`，Immediate 0.00%，Waste 0.00%。
+- 次留 30%：手动基线时延 1629ms，智能最佳 `threshold=0.20, cd=30s`，最佳 Immediate 37.42%，Waste 13.33%；最差 `threshold=0.90, cd=300s`，Immediate 0.00%，Waste 0.00%。
+- 次留 35%：手动基线时延 1615ms，智能最佳 `threshold=0.25, cd=30s`，最佳 Immediate 38.09%，Waste 14.03%；最差 `threshold=0.90, cd=300s`，Immediate 0.00%，Waste 0.00%。
+- 次留 40%：手动基线时延 1617ms，智能最佳 `threshold=0.20, cd=30s`，最佳 Immediate 38.05%，Waste 13.64%；最差 `threshold=0.90, cd=300s`，Immediate 0.00%，Waste 0.00%。
+- 次留 50%：手动基线时延 1618ms，智能最佳 `threshold=0.25, cd=30s`，最佳 Immediate 38.02%，Waste 14.06%；最差 `threshold=0.90, cd=300s`，Immediate 0.00%，Waste 0.00%。
+- 次留 60%：手动基线时延 1619ms，智能最佳 `threshold=0.25, cd=30s`，最佳 Immediate 38.01%，Waste 14.88%；最差 `threshold=0.90, cd=300s`，Immediate 0.00%，Waste 0.00%。
+
+## 交叉参数观察
+- 在同一保留率下，阈值下调能显著提高 `Immediate`，但通常也抬高 `Waste`。
+- cooldown 拉长可降低 waste（减少重复预加载/空耗），但可能提高用户等待。
+- 在弱网（尤其低分配机器人更多时）场景，建议提高 waste 上限约束后再考虑 lower threshold。
+
+## 图表示例（输出文件）
+- `heatmap_immediate_r_0.20.png`
+  ![](heatmap_immediate_r_0.20.png)
+
+- `heatmap_immediate_r_0.35.png`
+  ![](heatmap_immediate_r_0.35.png)
+
+- `heatmap_immediate_r_0.60.png`
+  ![](heatmap_immediate_r_0.60.png)
+
+- `heatmap_preload_success_r_0.20.png`
+  ![](heatmap_preload_success_r_0.20.png)
+
+- `heatmap_preload_success_r_0.35.png`
+  ![](heatmap_preload_success_r_0.35.png)
+
+- `heatmap_preload_success_r_0.60.png`
+  ![](heatmap_preload_success_r_0.60.png)
+
+- `heatmap_wait_ms_r_0.20.png`
+  ![](heatmap_wait_ms_r_0.20.png)
+
+- `heatmap_wait_ms_r_0.35.png`
+  ![](heatmap_wait_ms_r_0.35.png)
+
+- `heatmap_wait_ms_r_0.60.png`
+  ![](heatmap_wait_ms_r_0.60.png)
+
+- `heatmap_waste_ratio_r_0.20.png`
+  ![](heatmap_waste_ratio_r_0.20.png)
+
+- `heatmap_waste_ratio_r_0.35.png`
+  ![](heatmap_waste_ratio_r_0.35.png)
+
+- `heatmap_waste_ratio_r_0.60.png`
+  ![](heatmap_waste_ratio_r_0.60.png)
+
+- `line_immediate_vs_retention.png`
+  ![](line_immediate_vs_retention.png)
+
+- `line_mode_immediate_vs_retention.png`
+  ![](line_mode_immediate_vs_retention.png)
+
+- `line_mode_wait_vs_retention.png`
+  ![](line_mode_wait_vs_retention.png)
+
+- `line_network_immediate_vs_retention.png`
+  ![](line_network_immediate_vs_retention.png)
+
+- `line_network_wait_vs_retention.png`
+  ![](line_network_wait_vs_retention.png)
+
+- `line_threshold_0.55_retention_0.20.png`
+  ![](line_threshold_0.55_retention_0.20.png)
+
+- `line_threshold_0.55_retention_0.25.png`
+  ![](line_threshold_0.55_retention_0.25.png)
+
+- `line_threshold_0.55_retention_0.30.png`
+  ![](line_threshold_0.55_retention_0.30.png)
+
+- `line_threshold_0.55_retention_0.35.png`
+  ![](line_threshold_0.55_retention_0.35.png)
+
+- `line_threshold_0.55_retention_0.40.png`
+  ![](line_threshold_0.55_retention_0.40.png)
+
+- `line_threshold_0.55_retention_0.50.png`
+  ![](line_threshold_0.55_retention_0.50.png)
+
+- `line_threshold_0.55_retention_0.60.png`
+  ![](line_threshold_0.55_retention_0.60.png)
+
+- `line_wait_vs_retention.png`
+  ![](line_wait_vs_retention.png)
+
+## 验收结论
+- 建议首轮灰度点：`threshold=0.25`, `cooldown=60s`（兼顾即时性与 waste）。
+- 次留 35% 下智能策略最佳立即命中来自 `threshold=0.25, cd=30s`，即时率 `38.09%`，Waste `14.03%`。
+- 建议将 `smart_preload` 配置作为实验变量：先以纯手动为对照，再按次留分层和网络监控逐步放量。

Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/smartload_mode_comparison.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+retention,manual_immediate,manual_avg_wait_ms,manual_waste_ratio,manual_show_success_rate,smart_threshold,smart_cooldown,smart_immediate,smart_avg_wait_ms,smart_waste_ratio,smart_show_success_rate,delta_immediate,delta_wait_ms
+0.20,0.000000,1618.47,0.000000,0.713831,0.20,30,0.386941,1049.57,0.131398,0.811193,0.386941,-568.90
+0.25,0.000000,1640.73,0.000000,0.691270,0.20,30,0.375229,1065.33,0.141574,0.812173,0.375229,-575.40
+0.30,0.000000,1629.38,0.000000,0.705206,0.20,30,0.374202,1060.82,0.133269,0.809381,0.374202,-568.56
+0.35,0.000000,1615.17,0.000000,0.701975,0.25,30,0.380870,1049.72,0.140341,0.813540,0.380870,-565.45
+0.40,0.000000,1617.46,0.000000,0.706496,0.20,30,0.380503,1046.23,0.136426,0.812308,0.380503,-571.24
+0.50,0.000000,1617.67,0.000000,0.704662,0.25,30,0.380229,1046.52,0.140645,0.816228,0.380229,-571.15
+0.60,0.000000,1618.80,0.000000,0.704944,0.25,30,0.380129,1034.76,0.148807,0.817032,0.380129,-584.05

Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/smartload_network_mode_comparison.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+retention,network,manual_show_requests,manual_immediate,manual_avg_wait_ms,manual_p95_wait_ms,manual_waste_ratio,manual_preload_success,smart_threshold,smart_cooldown,smart_show_requests,smart_immediate,smart_avg_wait_ms,smart_p95_wait_ms,smart_waste_ratio,smart_preload_success,delta_immediate,delta_wait_ms
+0.20,wifi,3283,0.000000,1253.08,1817.20,0.000000,0.000000,0.20,30,3335,0.406597,765.85,1818.96,0.125115,0.738227,0.406597,-487.23
+0.20,4g,1864,0.000000,1600.26,2288.73,0.000000,0.000000,0.20,30,1779,0.397976,1002.80,2259.13,0.134786,0.740920,0.397976,-597.45
+0.20,3g,970,0.000000,2188.59,3063.34,0.000000,0.000000,0.20,30,998,0.351703,1450.82,3032.46,0.148199,0.639889,0.351703,-737.77
+0.20,2g,484,0.000000,3024.43,4201.55,0.000000,0.000000,0.30,30,527,0.311195,2184.73,4244.35,0.096419,0.509642,0.311195,-839.70
+0.25,wifi,3550,0.000000,1262.38,1842.06,0.000000,0.000000,0.20,30,3434,0.388759,786.41,1818.67,0.142606,0.736796,0.388759,-475.97
+0.25,4g,1921,0.000000,1607.07,2293.90,0.000000,0.000000,0.20,30,2024,0.397233,997.99,2267.05,0.156792,0.732659,0.397233,-609.07
+0.25,3g,1103,0.000000,2221.42,3084.03,0.000000,0.000000,0.25,30,1062,0.358757,1421.31,3034.89,0.129973,0.633952,0.358757,-800.11
+0.25,2g,539,0.000000,3064.31,4268.59,0.000000,0.000000,0.25,30,581,0.299484,2221.71,4319.85,0.099751,0.498753,0.299484,-842.59
+0.30,wifi,3759,0.000000,1263.36,1848.19,0.000000,0.000000,0.20,30,3793,0.395993,779.43,1829.44,0.140048,0.742376,0.395993,-483.93
+0.30,4g,2117,0.000000,1603.97,2280.83,0.000000,0.000000,0.25,30,2047,0.395213,988.80,2246.33,0.141655,0.714586,0.395213,-615.17
+0.30,3g,1126,0.000000,2190.25,3089.96,0.000000,0.000000,0.20,30,1132,0.330389,1483.44,3041.34,0.118321,0.609415,0.330389,-706.80
+0.30,2g,566,0.000000,3039.49,4152.60,0.000000,0.000000,0.25,30,599,0.297162,2193.38,4266.52,0.094923,0.445916,0.297162,-846.11
+0.35,wifi,4144,0.000000,1248.04,1831.74,0.000000,0.000000,0.25,30,3952,0.401316,766.95,1814.36,0.147770,0.752079,0.401316,-481.09
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+0.40,wifi,4391,0.000000,1244.02,1848.47,0.000000,0.000000,0.20,30,4387,0.397766,772.29,1805.00,0.132374,0.755267,0.397766,-471.73
+0.40,4g,2556,0.000000,1604.33,2273.21,0.000000,0.000000,0.30,30,2395,0.382463,1020.14,2265.42,0.114379,0.710458,0.382463,-584.19
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+0.50,2g,775,0.000000,3040.90,4187.70,0.000000,0.000000,0.25,30,790,0.303797,2191.78,4264.91,0.132042,0.484155,0.303797,-849.13
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+0.60,4g,3523,0.000000,1591.05,2278.64,0.000000,0.000000,0.25,30,3656,0.396335,1000.78,2283.74,0.150520,0.732186,0.396335,-590.28
+0.60,3g,1878,0.000000,2180.02,3070.56,0.000000,0.000000,0.25,30,1869,0.336544,1490.47,3039.28,0.134644,0.617247,0.336544,-689.56
+0.60,2g,907,0.000000,3058.50,4290.54,0.000000,0.000000,0.25,30,864,0.311343,2124.90,4205.69,0.119335,0.506042,0.311343,-933.60

Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/smartload_retention_rank.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,736 @@
+retention,rank,threshold,cooldown,immediate_show,avg_wait_ms,p95_wait_ms,waste_ratio,show_success_rate,delta_immediate,delta_wait_ms,delta_wait_pct,objective_score
+0.20,1,0.20,30,0.386941,1049.57,2826.32,0.131398,0.811193,0.386941,-568.90,-0.351504,0.339623
+0.20,2,0.30,30,0.377420,1056.28,2792.28,0.129125,0.802502,0.377420,-562.18,-0.347356,0.332741
+0.20,3,0.25,30,0.373917,1051.27,2744.75,0.134633,0.812434,0.373917,-567.19,-0.350450,0.329688
+0.20,4,0.25,60,0.252769,1249.04,2829.95,0.065685,0.783189,0.252769,-369.42,-0.228255,0.238897
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+0.20,19,0.45,60,0.142857,1438.75,2867.40,0.013738,0.751816,0.142857,-179.72,-0.111041,0.153377
+0.20,20,0.30,120,0.138818,1420.88,2862.83,0.012593,0.746578,0.138818,-197.58,-0.122080,0.152566
+0.20,21,0.35,60,0.138801,1431.34,2885.18,0.008658,0.730101,0.138801,-187.13,-0.115619,0.152295
+0.20,22,0.60,60,0.140597,1439.54,2906.59,0.012400,0.744726,0.140597,-178.93,-0.110553,0.151984
+0.20,23,0.50,60,0.139521,1439.46,2929.21,0.010981,0.748256,0.139521,-179.01,-0.110604,0.151523
+0.20,24,0.55,60,0.137463,1438.51,2854.39,0.011046,0.754662,0.137463,-179.96,-0.111189,0.150164
+0.20,25,0.20,180,0.103976,1472.79,2899.48,0.001963,0.729632,0.103976,-145.67,-0.090008,0.125111
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Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/smartload_robot_cohort_summary.txt

@@ -0,0 +1,8 @@
+Robot Cohort Summary
+===================
+reward_heavy: 1124
+interstitial_focus: 1024
+splash_driven: 985
+balanced: 885
+churn_sensitive: 499
+network_bound: 483

Tools/SmartLoadSensitivity/output/smartload_sensitivity_summary.csv

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